Proven whale

A proven whale is a tracked specialist who has had at least 20 of their tracked bets resolve. Below that threshold the sample is too small to say anything trustworthy about their hit rate, so we mark the wallet unproven and cap how much it can contribute to a signal’s conviction score.

Why 20 resolved bets

The number is a guard against the most common mistake in reading prediction markets: treating a hot streak as skill. A wallet that has gone 3-for-3 has a 100% win rate on paper, but that figure is meaningless — three coin flips land that way often. Around 20 resolved outcomes, a win rate starts to carry real information about whether a wallet is actually sharp or merely lucky. It is a deliberately conservative bar, and it is the line between a number you can lean on and a number that will mislead you.

A worked example

Two wallets each just backed the same outcome at the same price:

• Specialist A4k has 60 resolved bets at a strong win rate. It is proven — its win rate counts in full, and its position can earn high conviction and a measurable edge.
• Specialist Δ2 has 4 resolved bets, even though it bet twice as much money. It is unproven — its win rate is ignored, its conviction is capped low, and it never clears the buy criteria no matter how large the stake.

Only proven whales count toward win-rate, edge, and consensus calculations. This is the single rule that keeps a flashy, oversized bet from a nobody from outscoring a disciplined bet from a wallet that has actually won before — and it is why “how big is the bet” is one of the least important questions a whale tracker can ask.