Win rate

Win rate is the share of a proven whale’s decided (non-void) resolved bets that hit the outcome they backed. It is computed at the market level — which outcome the market actually resolved to — using only publicly-knowable settlement data.

What it is, and what it isn’t

Crucially, win rate is not a per-wallet profit figure. The free Polymarket data can’t report realized profit truthfully, so we never claim it. A high win rate means the whale tended to back the outcome that settled true; it does not, on its own, mean they made money, and it does not promise future results. Profit depends on the prices they paid — which is what edge captures, and why win rate and edge are different numbers.

Void (cancelled or invalid) markets are excluded entirely. A bet that never resolved to a real outcome is neither a win nor a loss, so counting it either way would distort the rate.

A worked example

Specialist A4k has 60 resolved, decided bets; 39 hit the backed outcome. Its win rate is 39 / 60 = 65%. That figure only carries weight because A4k is proven — it clears the 20-resolved-bet bar. A wallet that went 3-for-4 would show a flashier 75%, but on four bets that number is noise, so SlipSignals ignores it.

Read win rate as evidence of skill at picking the right side, not as a return. A 65% proven win rate tells you A4k is sharp; whether a given signal is worth acting on still comes down to the conviction behind it, the consensus around it, and the edge left in the price.