Conviction

Conviction is a 0–100 score that answers one question: how seriously should I take this signal? It is not a probability of winning and not advice — it is a measure of how much weight the evidence behind a single whale’s move deserves.

The three inputs

• Proven win rate (45%) — market-level win rate over the whale’s resolved bets. Counts only once the whale is proven with at least 20 resolved bets; below that it contributes nothing.
• Position size (30%) — how much real money is in this single bet (maxes out at $25k, so size helps but can’t dominate).
• Lifetime realized P&L (25%) — the whale’s all-time realized profit on the leaderboard (maxes at $50k).

The biggest input is whether the whale has actually won before. By design, a huge bet from someone with no track record cannot score high.

A worked example

Compare two fresh positions:

• Specialist A4k — proven, strong win rate, a $12k position, deep lifetime P&L. The win rate carries nearly half the score, the size and P&L add to it, and the result lands in the high tier. A signal worth reading.
• Specialist Δ2 — unproven, a flashy $24k position, thin history. The size component is near its cap, but with no proven win rate the score is held down and capped well below the high tier. The dollar amount is dramatic; the conviction is not.

That gap is the whole point. Conviction exists so that who is betting and whether they’ve been right before outweigh how loud the bet looks. A high conviction score paired with consensus and a live edge is the strongest configuration a signal can reach — but conviction alone is a measure of weight, never a promise of outcome.