Conviction

A 0–100 score for how seriously to take a signal — not a win probability.

Conviction is a 0–100 score that answers one question: how seriously should I take this signal? It is not a probability of winning and not advice.

It combines three inputs:

Proven win rate (45%) — market-level win rate over the whale’s resolved bets. Counts only once the whale has at least 20 resolved bets; below that it contributes nothing.
Position size (30%) — how much real money is in this single bet (maxes out at $25k).
Lifetime realized PnL (25%) — the whale’s all-time realized profit on the leaderboard (maxes at $50k).

The biggest input is whether the whale has actually won before. A huge bet from someone with no track record no longer scores high.